‘Lupin’: made by Netflix in France.
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The world is reeling from Donald Trump’s grand tariff announcement, which was positioned by the POTUS as “liberation day.”
Virtually no nation (bar notable exceptions including Russia) has escaped the tariffs, which have been mentioned almost daily by Trump since he returned to the White House and are at a 10% baseline, rising above 50% in places like China.
Given how much the American film and TV biz has helped supercharge local industries, we have woken up to nervousness around how all of this will impact international, especially in smaller nations that have become heavily reliant on American fare or selling to the States.
Sources from the international sector have been getting in touch with concerns over what may happen to their ability to sell shows into the U.S., whether American production abroad will be stymied and the future of local streamer obligations, the latter of which have been feeling the heat of the Trump administration over the past few weeks.
The good news is that it appears from early conversations that tariffs will not be specifically slapped on the production or sale of TV shows or movies into the U.S. These are services rather than goods, and producers and distributors have been telling us that their ability to sell to the States will not suddenly be dented.
“We’ve not seen anything so far that indicates this will apply to our services,” said John McVay, who runs UK producer trade body Pact and is in constant communication with his hundreds-strong producer member base. A source who works for a body that deals with American networks also sought to downplay the impact here. “Trump’s tariffs are really about [things like cars] and not stuff like media. There might be some concessions around tech but I’m not really seeing a clear impact beyond that,” added this source.
While pointing out that “services are excluded” and “this is the most important thing for countries like the UK which rely far more heavily on exporting services,” Alice Enders, who used to run analysis firm Enders Analysis and is a trade expert, said global ad revenues could be hit hard. Marketing budgets may be slashed as tariffs hit local economies and there could be further impact on Americans choosing to spend less on advertising abroad. This, Enders explains, would be a nightmare for the world’s ailing commercial broadcasters, which already face competition from multiple fronts.
“I would say the main impact right off the bat is advertising,” said Enders. “Obviously this is not good for any economy right now. We’ve been in a post pandemic rut and this cannot be good for recovery.”
We have approached the European Broadcasting Union, which represents the interests of commercial broadcasters, for comment.
“Hollywood wants to recover its golden age”
But while tariffs shouldn’t technically apply to TV shows or movies, there are amped-up fears that the values of protectionism preached by the Trump administration will lead the big studios and streamers to row back from making content abroad.
As long ago as January, Jay Hunt, chair of the British Film Institute, said she was perturbed by “some very protectionist language around Hollywood,” in what was clearly an allusion to Trump’s new government (we have approached the BFI for further comment). Simultaneously, since the L.A. wildfires there has been a renewed drive to get production back to Hollywood, with MyRumors revealing yesterday that a small group are working on a local solution to help bring mid-budget movies to the city. That plan includes reducing “onerous regulations and permitting” as well other “unnecessary fees, inconsistent safety requirements.”
Another senior source from a trade body said: “Tariffs may not apply but that is not to say Trump won’t bring pressure on U.S. companies to relocate their production back to the U.S. I think that is the main concern of producers given the potential policies of the new U.S. government.”
Around the world, red flags are waving that this protectionism could extend to local content obligations, which have become the bedrock of certain territories over the past few years.
A Europe-wide Audiovisual Media Services Directive allows individual European nations to impose financial obligations and content quotas on streamers. Numerous territories across the globe including in Europe, Australia and Canada have solidified these as streaming services take advantage of their cheaper production hubs. But forcing American companies to produce content abroad when they could be spending their dollars at home does not suit the Trump mantra.
Several weeks back, a White House memo lambasted these directives that “require American streaming services to fund local productions.” Since then, the Motion Picture Association (MPA) has highlighted “disproportionate investment obligations in Europe” and has been surveying its powerful member base on the topic. We have reached out to the MPA this morning for comment regarding next steps.
Local obligations were unsurprisingly a major talking point at last week’s Series Mania. Olivier Henrard, the deputy MD of France’s National Centre of Cinema (CNC), delivered a powerful speech in which he warned that “Hollywood [wants] to recover its golden age, a golden age which was supposedly lost to runaway productions made in foreign countries and regulations that require investing in local productions.”
“We therefore must expect a way more aggressive approach towards our European audiovisual sector,” claimed Henrard. “Against this background, I am convinced about one thing: we have to react collectively, as Europeans.”
Rather than kowtowing, Henrard called for “more ambitious quotas” than ever, putting forward the idea of a minimum 50% of European works on the streamers in each European country.
In Australia, the screen producers body was quick to get out on the front foot today, issuing a statement welcoming Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s remarks that the “Australian government strongly supports local content rules on streaming services so that ‘Australian stories stay on Australian screens’.” “I know that the Australian Government has been under enormous pressure from the USA on this front, amply evident from the aggressive position of the Motion Picture Association, which has sought to resist, delay, and read down the local content rules agreed to in the 2004 Australia-US Free Trade Agreement,” added Screen Producers Australia (SPA) CEO Matthew Deaner. “It is SPA’s highest priority to secure a robust regulatory framework on streaming platforms.”
Local industries no doubt will remain nervous. In many such sectors, streamers have pushed prices up, making content harder to afford, and so a sudden rowback would be disastrous.
What is certainly clear is how the devil will, as ever, be in the detail. Multiple industry figures and bodies told us they are still digesting the tariffs’ small print and will respond once they are more sure as to how they could be impacted by Trump’s “liberation day.”
Thinking bigger than just the TV and film biz, Enders believes the Trump tariffs represent a “monumental paradigm shift,” and the world would be foolish to try playing the former Apprentice host at his own game.
“There is a fallacy that this is about negotiation and the ‘art of the deal’, and so on, because it’s not,” she added. “Trump wants to reshore manufacturing and you can’t do that unless a tariff is permanent. How long will this last? As long as Trump wants to make it last.”