SATURDAY AM: The first weekend of 2025 –which sources have declared “a normal year”– is eyeing a grand estimated total of $105M for all movies, which is certainly better at +22% than the first weekend of 2024 which did $85.9M per Box Office Mojo. The first weekend currently ranks second on a post-Covid basis to that of 2023 when the holdover success of Avatar: The Way With Water and ME3AN delivered a $106.2M marketplace. TBD if Winter Storm Blair, which is expected to impact 62M people per CNN from the Plains to the East Coast becomes an issue. How does that number stack up in comparison against the moviegoing public? Per EntTelligence, Deadpool & Wolverine, the highest attended weekend of 2024, pulled in 13.6M.
Still, we’re far away from the annual first weekend levels of pre-Covid times, i.e. 2016 when Star Wars: The Force Awakens in its third weekend led all movies to $219.5M (per Box Office Mojo). Or even 2020, before we had any jitters stateside about the pandemic, when the first weekend of the year did $142.4M led by Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker.
Top 10
- Mufasa (Dis) 3,925 (-175), Fri $7.6M (-37%) 3-day $24.5M (-33%), Total $169.2M/Wk 3
- Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (Par) 3,746 (-23) theaters Fri $6.9M (-45% from prev Friday), 3-day $20.7M (-44%) Total $187M /Wk 3
- Moana 2 (Dis) 3345 (-65) theaters, Fri $4.1M (-36%) 3-day $13.2M (-30%) Total $425.9M/Wk 6
- Nosferatu (Foc) 3,132 (+140) theaters, Fri $4.25M (-42%), 3-day $13.1M (-39%) Total $69.3M/Wk 2
- Wicked (Uni) 3,287 theaters (+110), Fri $3.33M (-51%), 3-day $10.2M (-48%) Total $450.7M/Wk 7
The highest grossing feature take of a Broadway musical is eyeing another $25M per sources for a final of $475M. The 4x Golden Globe nominated movie is on PVOD currently and just saw a surge this weekend of 110 locations. - A Complete Unknown (Sea) 2,835 theaters, Fri $2.6M (-33%) 3-day $8.3M (-29%) Total $41.9M/Wk 2
- Babygirl (A24) 2,164 (+49) theaters, Fri $1.47M (+5%), 3-day $4.6M (+3%) Total $16.2M/Wk 2
- Gladiator 2 (Par) 1,748 (-117) theaters, Fri $870K (-36%), 3-day $2.65M (-35%) Total $168.8M/Wk 7
- Homestead (Angel) 1,700 theaters (-69) Fri $620K (-38%), 3-day $1.9M (-39%), Total $17.2M/Wk 3
- The Fire Inside (Amz) 2032 theaters (+26), Fri $380K (-42%), 3-day $1.23M (-37%), Total $7.1M/Wk 2
Notables:
SE7EN 30th anniversary (WB) 200 locations, Fri $399K 3-day $1.056M/Wk 1
More….
FRIDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: It’s a better first weekend of the year than last year with Disney’s Mufasa and Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 continuing their tussle into their third frames, $23M-$24M to $20M. In regards to 3-day weekends, this is the first No. 1 win for Mufasa. Sonic 3 won the first two 3-day weekends of its release, however, Mufasa was the No. 1 movie for the 5-day Dec. 25-29 period with $60.9M.
The top five movies are set to gross close to $78M which is $22M more than last year’s top five pic’s tally of $56M, meaning we’re in slightly better shape, and that’s without any new big titles.
Mufasa is in play at 3,925 theaters, and will hit $168.7M at the high end by Sunday. Sonic the Hedgehog 3 is booked at 3,746 sites and will reach a running total of $186.3M by Sunday, just $4.5M from becoming the highest grossing title in the SEGA franchise, besting Sonic the Hedgehog 2‘s $190.8M.
In third place is Focus Features’ second weekend of Robert Eggers’ Nosferatu at 3,132 theaters with a $12.3M 3-day, -43%, for a running cume by Sunday of $68.5M. And that total is without any Golden Globe noms this weekend. However, the Lily-Rose Depp, Bill Skarsgard, Nicholas Hoult, Aaron Taylor-Johnson movie is up for four Critics Choice Awards.
Fourth is Disney’s sixth weekend of Moana 2 with $12M, -37%, for a running total of $424.7M at 3,345 locations. Worldwide the movie is getting closer to overtaking the Despicable Me 4 global total of $969M, as well as reaching the $1 billion mark. The sequel is up for Best Animated Motion Picture at the Golden Globes this Sunday.
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Fifth is Universal’s seventh weekend of Wicked at 3,287 theaters with a 3-day of $9.5M, -52%, for a running cume of $450M by Sunday. The Jon M. Chu directed title dropped on PVOD on Dec. 31. Wicked is up for four Golden Globes this Sunday including Best Musical/Comedy Feature, Best Actress Comedy/Musical Cynthia Erivo, Best Supporting Actress Ariana Grande and Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement.
In sixth is Searchlight’s James Mangold directed Bob Dylan biopic, A Complete Unknown, with a second weekend of $7.5M, -36% at 2,835 with a running total by Sunday of $41.2M, which will make it the highest grossing Searchlight title post Disney-Fox 2019 merger, surpassing The Menu ($38.5M).
As we previously reported, this weekend, in addition to Oct. 31 and Dec. 12, is one of three weekends in 2025 sans wide releases.
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Last year, the top three movies were Warner Bros’ Wonka ($14M fourth weekend), Universal/Blumhouse’s Nightswim ($11.7M opening) and Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom ($10.6M).